Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

South OC sales rose even with rates above 7%

By Jason Holmes

Real estate, South Orange County

Rates crossed 7% in September 2026, according to Realtor.com. Most people expect that to kill demand. It did not here. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,895 closed sales across South Orange County in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 2.5% from the same three months in 2025. For sellers, buyers are still showing up. For buyers, competition did not go away just because financing got harder.

Supply shrank while sales grew

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,973 homes for sale across South OC in the same period. That is down 8.7% from a year earlier. New listings rose 9.8% to 2,313, so sellers are coming to market. But available inventory is still tighter than last year. Pending sales hit 1,991, up 3.5%. Buyers are writing offers.

Rates are not coming down soon

Fannie Mae, as reported by CNBC on October 14, 2026, forecast the 30-year fixed rate at 7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% through 2027. That is not a short-term problem. CNBC also reported that about 150,000 homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages face their first rate adjustment this year. Some of those owners may decide to sell rather than absorb a higher payment. That could add listings to an already-rising supply of new inventory.

Not every ZIP moved the same way

The market-wide numbers tell one story. The ZIP code numbers tell several. Some areas went faster this year. Others slowed. The table below shows days on market and the share of homes that sold above list price for each ZIP in the period. These two numbers together show you where buyers pushed hardest.

Where buyers moved fastest

ZIP 92673 had the fastest median at 25 days, down 21 days from the same period last year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. More than half of homes there went under contract within two weeks of listing, at 54.5%, up 22.1 points year over year. Homes sold there were up 39.7%. ZIP 92610 saw 45.8% of homes go under contract within two weeks, up 29.1 points. ZIP 92672 cut its median days by 18, to 40 days. ZIP 92651, Laguna Beach, moved in the opposite direction: 69 days on market, though that is 30 days faster than a year ago.

Prices: most ZIPs held or grew, a few pulled back

Most ZIPs posted higher median prices year over year. A few did not. ZIP 92688 (RSM) saw its median dip 7.1% to $842,500, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator, even as 36.8% of homes sold above list. A lower median with strong above-list activity often means the mix of homes that sold shifted toward smaller or less-updated properties, not that prices collapsed. ZIP 92610 (Foothill Ranch) saw its median fall 7.5% to $1,202,000, yet 34.5% of homes sold above list and 45.8% went under contract within two weeks. ZIP 92675 (San Juan Capistrano) dipped 5.1% to $1,400,000. On the other end, ZIP 92653 (Laguna Hills) rose 15% to $1,475,000, and ZIP 92630 (Lake Forest) rose 12.1% to $1,300,000.

What the national picture adds

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026, and 0.3% month over month in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. South OC's price gains in most ZIPs ran ahead of that national figure. CNBC reported that Zillow found pending home sales were down 8.5% year over year nationally in September. South OC's pending sales were up 3.5% in the same direction. This market did not follow the national trend.

The fire insurance question

If you are buying or selling in Coto, RSM, Dove Canyon or parts of Mission Viejo, get an insurance quote early. Fire insurance is harder to obtain in those areas, and some buyers hesitate because of it. I cannot quote premiums or predict what a carrier will offer. What I can tell you is that waiting until you are in escrow to find out is the wrong move.

One ZIP can read very differently from the whole

The South OC totals show a market that held up. But ZIP 92691 and ZIP 92692 are both Mission Viejo, and they moved differently this period. ZIP 92673 and ZIP 92672 are both San Clemente, and their numbers are not the same either. The street you are on, the price you are at, and the condition of the home all shape the result. The aggregate tells you the direction. Your specific address tells you the number.